What impact and loss will the epidemic have on Chinese beer?

Answer: There are impacts and losses, but not big!

1. The epidemic coincides with the off-season of beer. Although restaurants are closed and consumers consume less frequently, the loss of beer is relatively small compared with liquor.

2. It has an impact on the sales volume of the first quarter year-on-year, but it is not expected to have a deep impact on the annual data. The data in January is normal, the impact in February will be greater, and there will be an impact in March. It is still unclear, but from now on, the government is very optimistic about epidemic control and has found control and treatment methods.

It is estimated that the decline in the first quarter will be about 30%, and the annual impact will not exceed 3-5%. From last year's data, the industry sales trend increased by about 1%. It is estimated that the trend will not change this year, and it can offset 1-2 points appropriately.

What should beer manufacturers and distributors do during the current epidemic?

Answer: Be restless and follow the instructions.

1. At present, the central government and various localities have issued a timetable for resumption of work based on the progress of the epidemic, and restaurants and nightclubs are basically closed. Manufacturers and distributors can arrange to resume work according to government requirements.

2. Employees can use WeChat, DingTalk and other tools and office platforms for remote meetings, learning, training, etc.

3. Adjust the budget and reformulate the salary calculation method. When the epidemic is still unclear, it is not recommended to use sales as an assessment method, and the proportion should not be too high.

Under the influence of the epidemic, will the products on the market have immediate expiration?

Answer: 1. For the time being, the depth of the epidemic will not last for more than one month, and the later period of impact is estimated to not be too long. Therefore, there will be no pressure on product dates currently on the market.

2. From the manufacturer's point of view in the later period, it is necessary to appropriately loosen the clockwork of sales assessment, reduce the chance of maliciously suppressing goods at the implementation level, reduce the inventory pressure of dealers and terminals, and use management methods to follow up process indicators.

Will the beer giants provoke a new round of price wars?

Answer: 1. It is not ruled out that manufacturers will increase promotion for performance and shipments, but the overall control is controllable, and it is difficult to appear vicious competition in the past. At present, the industry concentration of the five giants has exceeded 80%, the division of sites is nearing completion, and the era of low prices for sites has passed.

2. Judging from the trends in the past few years, manufacturers have begun to raise their profitability to a new level by raising prices and closing factories to adjust their structure. In 2020, this strategic trend will still be the mainstream.

How to treat the losses caused by the epidemic?

Answer: 1. Loss of rigidity, just laugh it off! The industry's simultaneous loss is the rigid loss, and everyone is the same. So don't be too entangled.

2. Industry trends will not change, beer is still an important member of consumer products. In the long-term trend, there will be neither a big increase nor a big decrease, and the per capita consumption is in a stable state.

3. The pattern is relatively stable. Stories are not easy to happen between companies. From a competitive perspective, there is no way for anyone to take the other party in the competition for shares.

What inspiration will the epidemic bring to the industry?

Answer: 1. Healthy. This epidemic tells everyone that health is the most important element in the era of fast running, and eating and drinking has become a health burden. The beer industry must take health as its responsibility, starting from product development, consumption guidance, etc., healthy drinking is beneficial to health.

2. The scene. The scene of beer consumption is relatively single, and there are basically no new ideas. This has also led to the failure to expand the boundaries of beer consumption scenes, and may even be eroded by liquor and beverages. In the future, multi-scenario construction will be the strategic direction of corporate thinking, including online and offline, community-to-home, etc.

3. Cross-border. Beer is alcohol, but also a drink, which is itself a cross-border result. How to combine beer with fruit juice drinks, tea drinks and even milk drinks, develop multi-flavors and multi-packages; enrich the product line from non-alcoholic to weak alcohol and high-alcohol beer.

4. Self-drinking. Alcohol is one of the social tools and also a casual drink. Group drinking has an atmosphere. During the epidemic, with the rise of Yunyue wine, self-drinking has also become a must, especially if you drink a cup in a closed home, family consumption, especially the bottle of wine on the dinner table, has become a must.

Will the epidemic promote the growth of beer's online business?

Answer: Yes, definitely. The growth rate of beer online is about 50% per year, and the total online volume is about 1.5 billion, accounting for about 1% of the beer market. In the next 3-5 years, the growth rate of beer online will remain unabated, and it may soon exceed 5 billion, and it will be the cradle of specialty beer, high-end beer and an important sales method.