Right now, the whole country is fighting the epidemic with one heart and one mind.

How does this new crown epidemic affect the food and beverage industry? We collected the opinions of 10 securities analysts and listened to their respective judgments.

Guojin Securities: The impact of the epidemic on the liquor industry is limited in time and extent. The epidemic has suppressed the gift-giving attributes of dairy products in a short period of time, but the daily consumption demand remains unchanged, and the impact of the epidemic on the dairy industry is relatively small from the prolonged cycle. Bear the brunt of the impact on beer production, and the impact on profits still needs to be observed in the process of structural upgrading. Condiments are affected by the decline in upstream catering growth, but the overall decline in demand is controllable.

Bohai Securities: We believe that the less impacted sectors include condiments, meat products, dairy products and quick-frozen foods, which have a relatively high retail share. The epidemic has more impact on the liquor sector than food. At the same time, this incident may accelerate the clearing of small and medium-sized enterprises, further increase the concentration of leading enterprises, and make the situation of the strong and strong will become clearer.

Founder Securities: Because of the cancellation of catering and gift consumption and the suppression of gatherings, it has a great impact on sub-sectors with related attributes. It is good for household consumption, convenience foods and commodities with hoarding needs, such as quick-frozen foods, instant noodles, dairy products, etc., but products with gifts and related products in the catering industry chain are most affected. For example, gift-boxed dairy products, beverages, snack foods, fruits, etc., due to the expiration date, it is more difficult to handle inventory after the holiday; the high-end liquor in the liquor sector is the least affected, followed by the second high-end, and the public liquor has the greatest impact. Pre-mixing is less affected.

Ping An Securities: Affected by the epidemic, the national Spring Festival food sales have been flat, and the sales of products with strong gift attributes have slowed down more obviously. For upstream manufacturers, they have reached the peak of shipments in late December, and the epidemic has attracted attention. Supplier stocking is basically completed. It is expected that manufacturers' overall Spring Festival shipments will not be significantly affected, while distributors and terminal stores will face certain inventory pressure due to sluggish consumer demand. Looking forward, the willingness to make payments in the future may depend on channel inventory and consumer demand. It may continue to be negatively affected by the epidemic in the short term, and channels have a strong willingness to withdraw funds as soon as possible. This puts higher requirements on manufacturers’ price management capabilities. This is in the gift attribute. It may be particularly prominent in stronger products with shorter shelf life.

Huachuang Securities: We believe that the impact on various sub-sectors of food and beverage is different. Specifically:

1) The short-term impact is expected to be greater: consumption of products with social attributes and gift-giving attributes, such as liquor, beer, condiments, dairy products and beverage-related gift box products.

2) The short-term impact is expected to be small: products with essential consumption attributes, such as dairy products and meat products.

3) Expected short-term benefits: products with convenient and convenient, stock-holding attributes, such as convenience foods, compound condiments based on C-end, quick-frozen foods, snack foods, etc., as well as products with certain functional attributes, such as vinegar, Some health foods, etc.

China Merchants Securities: In the liquor sector, the overall peak season has a relatively small impact on payment and delivery. The mobile sales after February have a greater impact, and high-end liquor is relatively least affected. In the dairy product sector, pre-holiday stocking is basically unaffected, and sales during the Spring Festival and February are expected to have a certain impact, but with nutrition and health and family sales attributes, it is expected to have a limited impact on the annual performance, and the impact on normal temperature will be even smaller. In the condiment segment, the influence of the catering side is greater, and the influence of household consumption and simple supply chain is relatively small.

Centaline Securities: First of all, due to the complete closure of catering and catering is an important customer or consumption scenario of listed food and beverage companies, the sales of related listed companies during the epidemic have dropped sharply. The degree of shrinkage depends on the company’s catering customers or scenarios. The degree of reliance. We estimate that the catering closure will run through at least the first quarter of 2020, and even extend to the second quarter, that is, the entire first half of the catering-related consumption of food and drink will be severely suppressed. Secondly, due to the ban on social networking and gift-giving scenarios, the sectors tied to social consumption, including liquor, beer, wine, soft drinks, dairy products, etc., will also experience negative impacts, manifested as a sharp decline in the sales of mid-to-high-end gift box products. If food and beverage consumption can rebound quickly after the epidemic, it is difficult to make up for social consumption once it misses the time period for the occasion.

Bank of China International: We believe that the epidemic will have a greater impact on the demand for catering and gifts, which may have a significant impact on the demand for liquor, and the impact on dairy products and snack foods is neutral:

1) The two months before and after the Spring Festival is the most important period for liquor consumption, accounting for more than 30% of the total, so the overall demand for liquor in the first quarter of 2020 may decline significantly. Due to the lag in the report, the negative impact may continue to be reflected in the results of 1Q20 and 2Q20. After the Spring Festival, the market may generally lower its 2020 performance forecast for liquor.

2) During the Spring Festival, visits to relatives and friends will decrease, and the demand for snack food and high-end dairy products will also be suppressed in the short term. However, because dairy products and nuts have healthy properties and can be stored for a long time, the demand for hoarding increases. We judge the epidemic The impact on dairy products and snack foods is neutral. We judge that the stock price of liquor may continue to adjust after the holiday, and the impact on popular products will be relatively small.

Great Wall Securities: The epidemic will affect the food and beverage industry in the short term. The path of action is that the isolation and prevention of the epidemic has led to a reduction in the flow of people, resulting in a reduction in the frequency of visiting relatives and friends, dining out, and offline shopping, and a sharp decline in consumer demand, affecting social, catering and other related industries.

1) Liquor: The first impact is the sharp decline in terminal demand, and there is pressure on short-term digestion of channel and terminal inventory; the second is that the approval price may continue to drop after the holiday. It is estimated that the company may re-adjust its annual goals or distributor tasks to ensure the smooth digestion of inventory and healthy growth throughout the year. Moutai is still the most stable variety, and the price control of Wuliangye and Laojiao has become more difficult. The sub-high-end high inventory operation may take a long time to adjust.

2) Dairy products: First, milk has gift attributes, and the epidemic has affected the demand for gifts during the Spring Festival; second, consumers are going out to reduce and the frequency of offline shopping is reduced. Low-temperature milk has a short shelf life and may face greater pressure.

3) Condiments: The epidemic has restricted the two major channels of catering and wholesale markets, directly affecting the sales of sauce and vinegar. The increase in household consumption demand can partly compensate for the decline in catering demand. With reference to the SARS experience, food and beverages should resume quickly after the epidemic is over, and there is little pressure on condiments throughout the year.

4) Pickled mustard has less impact: on the one hand, it is an emergency relief material, and sales have increased during natural disasters in history; on the other hand, it is a light meal food, suitable for hoarding.

5) Snacks are mostly purchased online and consumed at home, which is suitable for the concept of "home" culture.

6) During the epidemic quarantine, consumers have demand for hoarding goods, and consumer demand for convenience foods such as noodles and frozen food will increase.

Regardless of the analysis, the final direction of the industry and when it will rebound require the joint efforts of the whole society.

Winter comes and spring comes again, let us unite together to overcome the difficulties together!